Katarina Nolte

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

“The international system - as constructed following the Second World War - will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors.

In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way - roughly from West to East - is without precedent in modern history.

China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country.

For the most part, China, India, and Russia are not following the Western liberal model for self-development but instead are using a different model, ‘state capitalism’.

… advances are likely to be slow and globalization is subjecting many recently democratized countries to increasing social and economic pressures with the potential to undermine liberal institutions.

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the region most vulnerable to economic disruption, population stresses, civil conflict, and political instability.
Despite increased global demand for commodities for which Sub-Saharan Africa will be a major supplier, local populations are unlikely to experience significant economic gain.
Windfall profits arising from sustained increases in commodity prices might further entrench corrupt or otherwise ill-equipped governments in several regions, diminishing the prospects for democratic and market-based reforms.

Asia, Africa, and Latin America will account for virtually all population growth over the next 20 years; less than 3 percent of the growth will occur in the West.

Resource issues will gain prominence on the international agenda. Unprecedented global economic growth - positive in so many other regards - will continue to put pressure on a number of highly strategic resources, including energy, food, and water, and demand is projected to outstrip easily available supplies over the next decade or so.

The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class.
Lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions, particularly for agricultural purposes, and the problem will worsen because of rapid urbanization worldwide and the roughly 1.2 billion persons to be added over the next 20 years.

Even with a favorable policy and funding environment for biofuels, clean coal, or hydrogen, the transition to new fuels will be slow.
Major technologies historically have had an “adoption lag.” In the energy sector, a recent study found that it takes an average of 25 years for a new production technology to become widely adopted.

The greatest possibility for a relatively quick and inexpensive transition during the period comes from better renewable generation sources (photovoltaic and wind) and improvements in battery technology.
With many of these technologies, the infrastructure cost hurdle for individual projects would be lower, enabling many small economic actors to develop their own energy transformation projects that directly serve their interests - e.g., stationary fuel cells powering homes and offices, recharging plug-in hybrid autos, and selling energy back to the grid.

Types of conflict we have not seen for awhile - such as over resources - could reemerge.

The trend toward greater diffusion of authority and power that has been occurring for a couple decades is likely to accelerate because of the emergence of new global players, the worsening institutional deficit, potential expansion of regional blocs, and enhanced strength of nonstate actors and networks.

The rising BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) powers are unlikely to challenge the international system as did Germany and Japan in the 19th and 20th centuries, but because of their growing geopolitical and economic clout, they will have a high degree of freedom to customize their political and economic policies rather than fully adopting Western norms.

By 2025 the US will find itself as one of a number of important actors, albeit still the most powerful one, on the world stage.
Even in the military realm, where the US will continue to possess considerable advantages in 2025, advances by others in science and technology, expanded adoption of irregular warfare tactics by both state and nonstate actors, proliferation of long-range precision weapons, and growing use of cyber warfare attacks increasingly will constrict US freedom of action.

… the surprise element is only a matter of timing: an energy transition, for example is inevitable; the only questions are when and how abruptly or smoothly such a transition occurs.

In this case, a transition - particularly an abrupt one - out of fossil fuels would have major repercussions for energy producers in the Middle East and Eurasia, potentially causing permanent decline of some states as global and regional powers.

… whether China or Russia becomes a democracy in this category.
China’s growing middle class increases the chances but does not make such a development inevitable.
A sustained plunge in the price of oil and gas would alter the outlook and increase prospects for greater political and economic liberalization in Russia.

Also uncertain are the outcomes of demographic challenges facing Europe, Japan, and even Russia.
Technology, the role of immigration, public health improvements, and laws encouraging greater female participation in the economy are some of the measures that could change the trajectory of current trends pointing toward less economic growth, increased social tensions, and possible decline.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_democracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_equality
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egalitarianism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability

http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-world

Tagged: futureworld